On paper, the Cardinals signing Dustin May comes with obvious risk. Injuries have prohibited him to just 20 total appearances in the last four years. But when you look at what a healthy Dustin May provides, it certainly would benefit any team.

Before injuries took over some of his prime years, May was one of the most effective young arms in baseball. In 2020, he posted a 2.57 ERA in 56 innings, striking out 54 batters while walking only 18. The following season, in 2021, he finished with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 106 innings. Opponents struggled hitting him that year with a .217 batting average facing him.

What makes May enticing to the Cardinals is how his skill set aligns with what the organization values. His sinker regularly hits 98–100 mph and has produced high ground-ball rates throughout his career. In 2021, May forced ground balls at a 54.6% rate, well above the league average. That statistic fits perfectly with a Cardinals team applauded for their near-perfect defense.

There’s also reason that St. Louis could help May rediscover his best form. The Cardinals have a history of getting the most out of pitchers by focusing on pitch efficiency and contact. May never needed strikeouts to be effective, but even so, his career 8.6 K/9 shows there’s swing-and-miss potential when needed. If the Cardinals can help him fix his command post-injury, his upside remains extremely high.

The move also makes sense financially. Rather than offering big money and years to a pitcher with limited upside, the Cardinals are taking a calculated bet on known talent. If May stays healthy and returns to his pre-injury production, this signing could be the difference maker by midseason.

Dustin May becoming a frontline starter is not a for sure thing. But the track record and fit with the Cardinals makes the signing worth it on both sides. For a team looking to reset its pitching, this is exactly the type of upside that could change the direction of the season. It also overs relief to a very young Cardinals rotation and pitching staff.